New report shows ZANU PF factions keen to see Mugabe go
By Violet Gonda
6 March 2007

For Zimbabweans to begin to move forward Robert Mugabe has to exit the political radar and should not be a political factor beyond March 2008. According to the International Crisis Group these are the sentiments across the political and social divide, including responses from the main ZANU PF factions.

The global political ‘think tank’ released a new and comprehensive report on Monday, which examines the deadlock in Zimbabwe and sees a chance to resolve the situation through the retirement of Mugabe when his term ends in 2008. The ICG recommends a power-sharing deal to create a transitional government that will prepare a new constitution and democratic elections in 2010.

The various suggestions in the report all make sense but some critics have said it relies upon a large number of theoretical transitions – such as whether Mugabe could realistically be persuaded to retire. But according to ICG senior analyst Sydney Masamvu all stakeholders, including the Mnangagwa and Mujuru factions in ZANU PF, agree that Mugabe is the stumbling block and has to go.

Masamvu said even though the 83 year old leader might have support from his security forces: “The feeling in ZANU PF is that even if Mugabe decides to defy the party and stands for re-election, indications are that he will be beaten even in an unfair election, because ZANU PF factions are ready to withdraw that support from him.”

The report which took five months to research in Zimbabwe, the region and internationally, urges all figures to rally around to stop Mugabe from extending his term, but also to provide him with an exit strategy at the expiration of his term next year.

Masumvu added; “I can tell you that the majority of SADC leaders – they want change of guard in Zimbabwe …and they are now willing to even persuade… even talk to some leaders in ZANU PF to persuade President Mugabe to exit … and even the issue of a smooth dignified Mugabe exit, they are willing to go that extra mile because they have seen the economic meltdown in Zimbabwe and the impact which it is having in their countries and in the region in terms of economic growth.”

Analysts say Mugabe will soon have no choice but to negotiate because the economy is caving in and Zimbabwe is increasingly isolated. They see the runaway inflation and increasing labour unrests as major factors that will bring Mugabe to the negotiating table. The ICG says if the regime refuses to engage in any transitional mechanism then the international community should tighten the targeted sanctions currently in place. The pressure group also says pressure from the African Union and the regional countries should be applied.

The think tank believes there is hope in the fact that two major factions of ZANU PF all agree that Mugabe must not proceed beyond 2008 and that there is a joint strategy between the two MDC factions who also agree that there should be a negotiated settlement.

The ICG analyst said: “We are not saying the MDC should come to power neither are we saying ZANU PF should stay in power for as long as it wants. We are saying we need a roadmap which creates conducive conditions under a new constitution which produces a legitimate outcome.”

An in-depth interview with Sydney Masamvu can be heard on the programme Hot Seat.