SADC ready to mediate in Zimbabwe’s political crisis

By Tichaona Sibanda
7 March 2007

Plans are already underway by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to mediate a resolution to the crisis in Zimbabwe.

This is the first time the regional body will put the Zimbabwe situation on its agenda on the insistence of Zambia, who will be taking over the community’s 12-month rotating chair during the Lusaka summit in August.

On Tuesday Zambia also became the first country within the SADC bloc to break its silence over the deteriorating political conditions in Zimbabwe, telling its counterparts in the region to stop pretending ‘all is well in Zimbabwe.’

Zambia’s Foreign minister Mundia Sikatana told SADC executive secretary Thomaz Salomao in Lusaka that there is a serious problem in Zimbabwe and that ostracising the regime will not help solve its problems. His remarks coincided with the release of a report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) which said that SADC is the organisation that could make a vital contribution to ending the Zimbabwe crisis.

SADC countries have for a long time been extremely reluctant to press Mugabe to mend his ways, but the ICG report said most SADC nations are now privately acknowledging they want Mugabe out, to pave the way for a moderate Zanu (PF) leader who is acceptable to the West. This way the SADC bloc will find it easy to engage with the United States and the European Union to adopt a joint strategy for resolving the crisis.

The United States and the United Kingdom have had no lines of communication with Mugabe for sometime, insisting they cannot negotiate until he brings back the rule of law and starts respecting human rights, as well as repealing all the country’s draconian laws.

Analysts believe SADC leaders have finally realised Mugabe is the stumbling block to any negotiated settlement and the bloc’s troika has quietly begun exploring ways to negotiate a retirement package for him, while persuading the West to relax its pressure. Political commentator Bekithemba Mhlanga said Mugabe, who has overseen political settlements in other countries, knows that at some point he will have to either negotiate or face the consequences.

Recommendations contained in the ICG report say the West should both maintain pressure at this crucial point and increase support for democratic forces despite plans by SADC to engage the EU over its targeted sanctions against Mugabe.

Mr. Salomao said his secretariat would look at addressing the issue of the sanctions, which have ‘crippled the economy and resulted in widespread chronic poverty.’ Analysts have described this as ‘Africa speak’ as there are no sanctions on Zimbabwe. Only targeted sanctions on the ruling elite. Presumably Mr. Salamao thinks that by going along with Mugabe’s protestations that it is ‘sanctions’ that are the problem, he will be able to get him to the table for negotiations.

The ICG report suggests that a joint strategy by SADC with the US and the UK could negotiate for an exit deal on the expiration of Mugabe’s term in 2008 and of an agreement between Zanu (PF) and the MDC on a power sharing transitional government. This transitional government could oversee development of a new constitution, repealing of repressive laws and holding internationally supervised presidential and parliamentary elections in 2010.

Whether this bold blue print for a way out of Zimbabwe’s crisis is at all achievable, remains to be seen.