Is the USA backtracking on Zimbabwe?

By Violet Gonda
11 January 2006

Zimbabwe’s opposition and civic groups have been warned that as long as they do not force the opening of democratic space, the US and Europe will be forced to come to terms with the Zimbabwe government.

The United States government is planning to restart its annual forums with the Southern African Development Community (SADC). These were cancelled several years ago because of disagreements about Zimbabwe’s participation.

In what has been seen as a major shift in policy, t he Cape Times newspaper reported that the US assistant secretary of state, Jendayi Frazer, confirmed the US is open to the resumption of the SADC–US Forum which could include Zimbabwe.

Ralph Black, co-chair of the North America Coalition for a Free Zimbabwe, believes this is not backtracking but a realisation by the US that they have greater interests beyond the humanitarian aspect in Africa. He said China is competing with the US globally for energy and Africa produces 15% of American energy consumption with SA and Angola being major contributors.

Frazer reportedly said the Zimbabwe issue had impeded a full US dialogue with SADC in the past. "But it won't in the future... I don't see any reason why we can't have forums, why we can't engage SADC."

Black said on a broader issue, the US has to remain engaged to a ZANU PF led government simply because there is no alternative. He said: “with the MDC fragmented and divided who do the Americans talk to if they don’t see a leader emerge from within the opposition? So to safeguard their interests engagement with SADC with a cordial light relationship with Mugabe is essential if they are to maintain an effective presence and secure their interest in that part of the world.”

The commentator said the US policy in the last 3 years has taken a different formulation from regime change, to regime legitimacy and back to regime change. He said now it’s back to regime legitimacy simply because the US has not been able to make any headway internally either by engaging Mugabe directly or supporting the opposition to do so. “So they have to weigh what is in the best interest of American foreign policy and as long as the MDC remain fragmented fighting each other and not coming up with an effective strategy we will see a shift in international policy towards Zimbabwe.”

But Frazer reportedly stressed that the planned resumption of the SADC-US Forum did not imply any softening of the selective sanctions imposed on Mugabe and his leadership.

Black said they are looking to see a more moderate face in ZANU PF and will not speak to Mugabe as he is seen as having “cooked his own goose.” But he believes they will maintain a relationship so as to be ready to engage a more moderate face.

On the issue of the sanctions, Ralph Black said the Americans have committed themselves to democracy by implementing the targeted sanctions (the travel ban and the asset freeze) and this is a commitment that they cannot just reverse.