IMF delay of Zimbabwe's expulsion intensifies pressure for change

By Tererai Karimakwenda
12 September 2005

On Friday the executive board of the International Monetary Fund met to review Zimbabwe's situation and resolved to hold off the country's pending expulsion for another six months. The decision surprised many given Zimbabwe's failure to pay its arrears and its refusal to make serious political and economic reforms. But financial analysts who, like the IMF, are aware of just how critical the country's economy is, say the decision to delay is actually a clever move. It keeps the pressure of shortages on Mugabe while allowing time to force some sort of changes. Economists in the country who spoke to the IMF team that visited last week, say the money lender is aware that ZANU-PF needs to make some political changes in the next few weeks. The delay was designed to allow time for this.

Economist John Robertson told us he doubts that the IMF made its decision based on political needs because the board confines itself to economic issues. But he agrees that the economy has deteriorated to the point where ZANU-PF cannot sustain it, and to improve the country's profile, they will be forced to make political as well as economic changes.

Robertson said besides the problem of foreign currency shortages, Zimbabwe has a huge domestic debt which is growing rapidly. The government cannot service this debt and no-one will lend them money because they have no ability to pay back. Further, said Robertson, this year's agricultural season is a disaster and next year is bound to be worse. There are no inputs and there is no fuel . He said the IMF knows all this, and they know Mugabe and his government will collapse very soon. Hence the decision to allow just a little more time.

MDC national executive member Eddie Cross agrees with this analysis.
He said the IMF knew it would be a struggle to get enough support for Zimbabwe's expulsion since 85% of the votes are needed. Cross said the 6-month delay gives South Africa time to do something before the next decision while keeping the pressure on Mugabe. He believes all the political changes needed will not take place under the current regime and in only 6 months. But the pressure to begin reforms will intensify in that time.

Only time will tell whether the IMF's decision was indeed a clever one, or whether Mugabe has simply stolen more time and outwitted them all once again.