Pre-election survey shows Tsvangirai in lead

By Lance Guma
14 March 2008

MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai has more support than Robert Mugabe and Simba Makoni combined, according to a recent pre-election survey by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI). Tsvangirai was favoured 28,3 percent by respondents, compared to Mugabe’s 20,3 percent and Makoni’s 8,6 percent. The MPOI was set up in 1999 ‘to promote and strengthen democratic governance through research.’ It is run by respected political commentator and University of Zimbabwe lecturer Eldred Masunungure.

Masunungure said a lot of votes are still up for grabs since a number of respondents refused to disclose their choices. A general climate of fear cultivated by successive violent election campaigns has meant many people are reluctant to discuss the candidates they will vote for. About 23,5 percent of those surveyed said their vote was secret, 7,5 percent had nothing to say, 5,4 percent will not vote, 4,4 percent said they didn’t know. In addition 1 percent said they would vote for little known presidential candidate Langton Towungana, while the remaining 1,9 percent respondents were classed as ‘other’ in the report.

Masunungure says it is unlikely any of the candidates can get an outright majority of over 51 percent in the first round of voting. This he says means a second round of voting will be necessary to choose between the two leading candidates. He says it will also be unlikely that any of the parties contesting will secure a two-thirds majority in both the House of Assembly and Senate. Under Constitutional Amendment 18, signed by both Zanu PF and the MDC, the winner of the presidential election has to get an outright majority.

The MPOI survey has also revealed that at least 75 percent of people polled did not receive any voter education from the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. Under the SADC guidelines governing elections and adopted in 2004, voter education is a key requirement to ensure free and fair elections. This is in addition to equal access to the media and freedom to hold political rallies, none of which has been respected by the ruling party. Zanu PF has also responded to the MPOI pre-election survey by commissioning its own survey to be conducted by academics from the University of Zimbabwe, aligned to the party.