Humanitarian crisis may force SADC to act on Zimbabwe

By Tererai Karimakwenda
14 August, 2007

It has been acknowledged by several regional analysts and political commentators that the Southern African Development Community does not have much power to act on the Zimbabwe crisis. And indeed many Zimbabweans lost faith in the organisation as it has failed over the last few years to adopt recommendations by its own Human Rights Commission. But the humanitarian situation in Zimbabwe has deteriorated so much that the region is beginning to feel the effects, and this may force member states to act differently at the summit in Lusaka, Zambia this week. Is the tide finally turning against Robert Mugabe?

Tim Hughes, a research fellow at The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), described SADC as “a rather weak body” with regards to enforcement. He said: “It is far stronger with regard to ideals, protocols, positioning etcetera, but very weak indeed in terms of implementation and effective action, particularly against a member state such as Zimbabwe. And particularly against a leader, elder statesman such as Mugabe.”

But Hughes believes the very fact that a mandate was granted to South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki was an acknowledgement by SADC that there is a problem in Zimbabwe that needs to be tackled. He also sees the Zambian leader Levy Mwanawasa as the other significant factor that might affect the summit’s position. Mwanawasa is taking over the SADC chairmanship and earlier this year he described Zimbabwe’s economy as a “sinking titanic.” Hughes said: “Levy Mwanawasa is unlike other SADC leaders. He is not beholden to Robert Mugabe.” Hughes explained that many other SADC leaders still revere, respect and even fear Mugabe. But Mwanawasa is no such character. He is expected to make critical comments about any member states that have a negative impact on the others around them.

Hughes said he was in Zimbabwe last week and the country is now entering a situation where the humanitarian crisis may intensify to the point where the only thing that will work will be some kind of humanitarian relief effort by SADC. He believes this may be the only situation where SADC would send in troops.

Hughes said there is a recognition in South Africa that the crisis in Zimbabwe is deepening beyond control. He believes this is the most important development. He said the government there is already “dusting off” plans it put in place in 2002 to establish refugee camps on its borders. He concluded: “What SADC needs to confront is that the Zimbabwe situation is moving so rapidly beyond them it could become an emergency that will confront all the frontline states unless the summit takes a very serious position and attempts to broker some kind of negotiated settlement prior to next year’s elections.”