There is much talk in Zimbabwean circles that Robert Mugabe will not be able to hang on to power much longer because of the economic crisis. In fact many believe he will be out of office by the end of the year. Signs on the ground indicate that this scenario is quite possible.

The Zimbabwean dollar started trading at the rate of £1: Z$305 000 on Tuesday morning but during the day it went progressively down to Z$355 000, then Z$375 000 and Z$405 000.

Officially inflation is currently pegged at more than 3,700% but economists say that in fact it could be as high as 15,000%.

Last week an international aid agency estimated that if inflation continued accelerating at today’s rate it would reach 500 000% by the end of the year. The experts said some non-governmental organizations agencies were already paying their local staff on a weekly basis and before long they are going to have to pay them on a daily basis. More companies are shutting down and dissatisfaction within the workforce is increasing as more and more people fail to cope.

Just yesterday other commentators were predicting an inflation rate of 1.5 million percent, by year-end. Most observers now say the chances of the government surviving the imminent collapse of the economy are slim.

Sydney Masamvu, a senior analyst with the political think-tank the International Crisis Group, said whilst he agrees that the economy will be Mugabe’s “waterloo” he doesn’t think the 83 year old leader will be gone by year end. Masamvu said the economy of Zimbabwe has been collapsing for the last seven years but Mugabe has been managing to survive by printing more money and abusing state minerals. The analysts said some ‘friends’ of Mugabe from Africa and parts of East Asia, who don’t want to see total collapse, have also been helping him limp from crisis to crisis.

But there are others like outgoing US Ambassador to Zimbabwe Christopher Dell who believe the economic signs on the ground point to a Mugabe exit in 2007. Ambassador Dell told journalists on Monday: “We are closer to seeing change in Zimbabwe today from within than at any time since independence."

Even members and supporters of the ruling party have cast doubt on the viability of Robert Mugabe. The financial website Moneyweb quotes former Finance Minister Simba Makoni saying that Zimbabwe is on the threshold of change, and alluded to presidential succession during a debate at the World Economic Forum on Africa in Cape Town last Thursday.

Moneyweb also quoted Ibbo Mandaza, who is believed to be a ruling party sympathizer and aligned to certain ZANU PF factions. Mandaza predicted that Mugabe would no longer be president next year, but pointed out that the solution lay within ZANU PF. He is quoted saying: "I'll say nothing will start to happen positively on the economic front until the succession issue is resolved. I sincerely feel the succession issue will be resolved by the end of this year - then we can talk about the way forward."