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Zimbabwe: ICG recommends new strategies to pro-democracy groups
By Violet Gonda
24 August 2006
The International Crisis Group has released a report on Zimbabwe recommending several strategies of peaceful protests for the pro-democracy movement. The group said that to avoid an explosion in Zimbabwe that could cost thousands of lives and shatter Southern Africa, the opposition may need to launch a risky strategy of nationwide, non-violent protest.
Once the breadbasket for Southern Africa, the Crisis Group said Zimbabwe “is sinking further into economic and political distress, and bringing ever closer the prospect of a violent explosion whose shock waves would rattle a region that has otherwise mostly demonstrated considerable stability and progress. In this time, outside actors have seemed incapable of helping to reverse this downward direction.”
John Norris, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Executive said two lessons are clear in Zimbabwe; “The first is that despite his deserved standing as a hero of the anti-colonial struggle in the past, the 82-year old President Robert Mugabe is the key obstacle to a more hopeful future. The second is that to avoid the abyss, change must start from within”.
Although Zimbabwe is more polarized than ever, the International think-tank that advises governments and NGOs said if the political opposition and civil society manage to use the general dissatisfaction in the country effectively, they may become the spark that finally sets Zimbabwe toward change.
“The course is risky, but Zimbabwe’s splintered opposition needs to come together to formulate a campaign of non-violent resistance that channels anger and frustration into pressure on Mugabe to keep his word to retire by 2008 and on his ruling ZANU-PF party to negotiate a transition seriously.”
Sydney Masamvu, ICG Senior Analyst for Southern Africa, said the main aim for the Crisis Group is to promote opposition unity and confront the daunting task of engaging the Zimbabwe government.
The group said the strategy may not be direct confrontation on sensitive issues like a new constitution but a better tactic might be a decentralised campaign of widespread non-violent demonstrations on specific bread-and-butter issues. It said a decentralised campaign at many places around the country could have more promise, because it would be harder to infiltrate and disrupt and might force the government to decide between starting a process of piecemeal concessions or relying on less trusted men as the security forces would be stretched.
It is widely believed the international community is fatigued and disillusioned at the lack of progress in Zimbabwe and shows no inclination to attempt new initiatives.
“Realistically, the outside world has limited influence here,” said Suliman Baldo, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director. “The onus for action lies with the people of Zimbabwe and only more concerted action on their part will ultimately trigger reform.”
ICG believes that with conditions becoming so dire, no one can discount a spontaneous revolt like the 1998 food riots. But said it is up to the MDC and civil society to try to manage the birth of a new dynamic that would also energise the international community.
Click here for the detailed ICG report.
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