New survey shows Mugabe has lost support

By Lance Guma
24 August 2009

Two new surveys by the Mass Public Opinion Institute show that support for Robert Mugabe has dropped by 20 percent since the unity government was formed in February. The two polls conducted in April and May also reveal that ZANU PF would be reduced to a small opposition party if they went into elections against the MDC right now. Only 10 percent of adults polled said they would vote for Mugabe while Tsvangirai and his MDC party were shown as easily getting 57 percent of the votes.

The Mass Public Opinion Institute is a non-governmental research organization, established in January 1999. Its main objective is to gauge public opinion on topical issues of governance and public concern and make this known to policy makers and members of the public. For the last ten years their polls have tended to be accurate.
University of Zimbabwe lecturer Eldred Masunungure, who is the director of the institute, refused to comment on the survey. It is however believed the survey could be the most accurate yet, since it was conducted in the rare peaceful environment that currently prevails. The interviewers were able to penetrate ZANU PF strongholds and pose questions to people on their political preferences. This was not the case in previous polls when the climate was dominated by ZANU PF intimidation.
Analysts say it is little wonder there is growing talk about extending the life of the coalition government to 5 years, because ZANU PF is desperate to undergo a ‘rehabilitation exercise’ and win back its dwindling support. Last week Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa confirmed that the three parties to the unity deal could extend the agreement, depending on what they agreed to. He said he did not know if the 3 main party principals had initiated discussions on the matter yet.

It is entirely possible all three parties favour an extension to the life of the unity government, for various different reasons. The Mutambara MDC is in chaos following the controversial expulsion of 3 of its MP’s and the emergence of a splinter faction led by Job Sikhala and ZANU PF is aware it has lost support because of its recent use of extreme violence and murder. But the Tsvangirai MDC already has a majority in parliament and will be happy to avoid violent by-elections that threaten their numbers.