Dear Jag

As I sat in my privileged position in UK reading the Jag letters of 4 June, I was struck by the optimism of some of Eddie Cross's statements there, and felt moved to comment with what I hope is not (too much) cynicism.

In the engineering company offices where I work, there is a world risk map on the wall, on which Zimbabwe is one of a handful of countries sporting a red flag. Red means risk of conflict or civil unrest, inability of institutions to support the needs of businesses and investors, concentration of power in an executive that lacks accountability, high levels of corruption, risk of expropriation of assets, risk of contract rights not being enforced by the judiciary, risk of property rights not being protected... The Economist ranks Zimbabwe as equal second most risky country in the world for investors, just behind Iraq, with Myanmar (Burma). Against this general picture and events in Zimbabwe over the past years (much of it as read in Jag newsletters), I picked on a few of Eddie's statements:

"As far as land reform is concerned the Courts are about to rule that everything Zanu PF have done since 1998 has been illegal. The thousands of people they have turned off their land in an illegal orgy of theft and pillage are going to be granted full compensation by the Courts and they are then going to have to worry about paying the bills that will ensue".

I have my doubts that the MDC wants the Courts to grant anything of the sort. The notion of ZanuPF worrying about paying compensation seems laughable, and as things stand I won't be surprised if Tsvangirai steers away from this issue to avoid any responsibility falling to any administration he might speak for. Sadly I suspect that Tsvangirai doesn't want to be seen standing up for justice for white farmers (although many of his supporters would expect him to do so), and to the rest of the world, white farmers in Zimbabwe are a thorny complication to a remote problem that will best be left alone to disappear in the mists of time.

Easily identifiable minorities are convenient targets as objects of blame for unscrupulous dictators; it has happened many times before.

It could hardly have been easier for Mugabe to pick on Zimbabwe's white farmers when his support started to wither. In 1770, the Anglo-Irish politician Edmund Burke said in the House of Commons, "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle". ZanuPF has been engaged in a contemptible struggle to steal farms and property in Zimbabwe, and most of the white farmers, together with all the MDC supporting victims of ZanuPF violence and theft, stand to disappear as the unpitied sacrifice.

"Zanu tried to keep us out of any transitional administration - they have failed. They have done everything that they can to try to evict us and put us back on the street - they have failed. They are trying to show that we do not have any real power in this new administration only to discover that their own weakness is thereby exposed for all to see ".

The impression I get is that in the new administration, ZanuPF has succeeded in pointing the MDC in selected directions, if not largely bringing it on board.

"They (ZanuPF) are being gradually forced to actually live up to the deal they were forced to accept and sign in September last year, as that process unfolds, enforced by the region and South Africa, so they will appreciate, like the hard men in South Africa after 1990, that this tide is not reversible and leads in only one direction".

On the contrary, all reports I read suggest that the only thing that has been enforced by the region and South Africa (with the exception of

Botswana) is the continuation in power of ZanuPF. I haven't noticed any country in the region criticising Mugabe's open contempt and dismissal of the rulings of the SADC Tribunal, and I won't be surprised if we never see the SADC considering its options for punishment.

Cometh the hour, cometh the man, so the saying goes. To me it seems the saying failed in Zimbabwe. The hour came many years ago, and a man came whom the people pinned their hopes on, but he couldn't make the tipping point. It seemed that many times Tsvangirai stood on the brink of creating an unstoppable momentum towards change, only to let the opportunity slip from his grasp by disappearing from view (or from the

country) for long periods. The charitable view of his current approach is that it is an "incremental" one aimed at achieving gradual reform, but the concern is that it is merely adding a veneer of respectability to a discredited regime, assisting the perpetuation of a status quo that ensures that the future is little more than more of the same. I hope the concern is misplaced, otherwise we needn't expect to see any red flags being removed in the years ahead.

I know the easy response to these comments is that we can never appreciate the personal risks and sacrifices that were called for if we weren't there, and to that I have no defence. I can only wish all strength to the good people, Eddie Cross among them.

Regards

Nick McCabe