Friday July 15th 2011
An article in the UK Independent on 13th July titled “France claims Gadaffi is prepared to sacrifice his grip on power” caught my eye this week. Rumours are that Zimbabwe might be his destination of choice if – and it’s a big if - he decides to leave Libya. Gadaffi is on record as saying “I am not going to leave this land. I will die here as a martyr” but things have changed quite a lot since he said that. Nato forces began their bombardment in mid-March and they have inflicted considerable damage on Gadaffi’s forces. He is under increasing pressure from his own ministers and soldiers as well as the ‘rebels’ to leave the country. “The question,” says the French Foreign Minister, “is no longer whether Gadaffi is going to leave power, but when and how.”
So where would he go and, more to the point, who would have him? His relationship with Robert Mugabe goes back a long way. The news that there were African mercenaries fighting on Gadaffi’s behalf in the present conflict came as no surprise. Rumours that Mugabe had dispatched Commando troops to Libya to protect Gadaffi tied in neatly with reports that Zanu PF was being funded by the Libyan leader who has fiercely defended Robert Mugabe’s regime at the AU.
It would not be the first time Mugabe had intervened militarily in another African country. Zimbabwe sent 11.000 troops to the Congo back in 1999 in defence of Laurent Kabila. That war lasted four years and led directly to the start of Zimbabwe’s economic collapse. The rewards for the army’s top brass however were lucrative deals in Congolese diamonds. Would it suit the military to have Gadaffi as an exile in Zimbabwe bearing in mind the security considerations that would be involved?
And now, twelve years later, is Mugabe about to give refuge to his friend Gadaffi, a man who, like Mugabe, has used violence against his own people to retain power. The fact that it would alienate Zimbabwe from the rest of the world is hardly likely to trouble Mugabe. When asked in parliament about Zimbabwean involvement in Libya, the Minister of Defence, Emmerson Mnangagwa, replied, “I have no mandate to investigate activities happening in another African country.” Such a bland non-answer did little to quieten the rumour mill. It was reported that in early March the US identified Zimbabwe as a possible exile venue for Gadaffi and the Russian envoy on the Libyan crisis met with Mugabe as recently as July 5th.
How will ordinary Zimbabweans react to having the Libyan dictator in their midst? Neither civic society nor the MDC have reacted so far. Rumour has it that Gadaffi’s family already owns several properties, including farms, businesses and residential stands. Gadaffi himself purchased a house once owned by Grace Mugabe in one of Harare’s ‘leafy suburbs’.
Mugabe will be the one to make the decision about whether to give Gadaffi asylum and moral considerations are not likely to carry much weight. Mugabe has already given refuge to Mengistu Haile Mariam the former Ethipian dictator and the Ruandan genocidaire Protais Mpiranya. The Zimbabwean people have been silent on that issue too. Mugabe will perhaps be encouraged by stories that Gadaffi has a plane loaded with gold bullion and thousands, if not millions, of US dollars ready for a quick getaway. Gadaffi is apparently demanding absolute guarantees of his personal safety. That might be difficult in a country where greed and envy appear to be the over-riding motives for the diamond-rich military elite. How other African leaders would view such a development is another consideration. While Mugabe professes not to care what the west thinks of him, he is anxious not to offend his African brothers.
Having a man like Gadaffi in the country would surely make Zimbabwe a target for all sorts of extremist groups and that would not play well with Zimbabwe’s neighbours, including South Africa, whose President Zuma is the facilitator for the troubled negotiations between the political parties.
Yours in the (continuing) struggle
PH. aka Pauline Henson author of the Dube detective stories available from Lulu.com
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